Workshop “Enlightenment or Manipulation: Mass Media and Electoral Campaigns”

Enlightenment or Manipulation: Mass Media and Electoral Campaigns

Tuesday, May 26, 2015 – h. 9:30

Dipartimento di Scienze sociale e politiche
Università degli Studi di Milano
SPS Seminar Room
(Room 215, II floor, via Passione side)
via Conservatorio 7, Milano

Chair: Paolo Segatti (ITANES/Università degli Studi di Milano)

Richard Johnston (The University of British Columbia)
Julia Partheymüller (Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung)
Cristiano Vezzoni (ITANES/Università degli Studi di Trento)
Moreno Mancosu (Università degli Studi di Trento)
Mauro Barisione (ITANES/Università degli Studi di Milano)
Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck (Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung)
Thomas De Rocchi (University of Zurich)

in cooperation with POMLAB – Public Opinion & Media Lab

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Workshop_Enlightenment or Manipulation

Seminario CISE Party identification and new measurement strategies. Firenze, Martedì 24 marzo 2015 – ore 11.00

Seminario CISE

Party identification and new measurement strategies:
first results (US, Italy, France) from a 8-country comparative survey

Martedì 24 marzo 2015 – ore 11.00-14.00

Università di Firenze – Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche e Sociali

Edificio D5 – Via delle Pandette 21
Aula “Alberto Spreafico”


David W. Brady (Stanford University)
Lorenzo De Sio (Luiss Guido Carli, Rome / CISE)
Aldo Paparo, (Hoover Institution / CISE)


Roberto D’Alimonte (Luiss Guido Carli, Rome / CISE)

The concept of party identification is one of the most significant and enduring in political science, inspiring countless numbers of articles and books–including many classics. However, its application to multi-party systems has historically proven problematic, especially in terms of measurement, leading to measures that hardly reflect the key features of the concept. A conference in 2011 in Rome (“Revisiting Party Identification: American and European Perspectives”, organized by the CISE – Italian Center for Electoral Studies), was dedicated to the issue, with the participation of top scholars from both sides of the Atlantic. In that occasion an alternative strategy emerged for measuring party attachments in multi-party systems, through the development of new analysis approaches on top of the well-known and tested PTV (propensity-to-vote) item batteries. Scholars at that conference agreed then to test this innovative framework through a comparative study of electoral behavior based on representative surveys performed in eight countries (the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, the UK, and South Korea). Through the inclusion of both traditional and new party identification measures, as well as questions on a variety of policy issues, the study aims at trying to tease out the identification-preference dimensions of party attachments. Shortly after the completion of data collection in the selected countries, this seminar will present a preliminary analysis of collected data on the US, Italy and France.

Conferenza su Forecasting the 2015 British General Election, LSE, 27 Marzo 2015 

La conferenza si terrà nell’aula CLM 4.02, Quarto piano, Clement House,LSE

Per partecipare email a:


0900    Tea and coffee on arrival

0940    Nowcasting with micro data: an empirically calibrated vote flow model, Ed Fieldhouse (Manchester) and Jon Mellon (Oxford) 

 The Future of Electoral Forecasting?: Using Twitter to Predict the Outcome of the 2015 UK General Election

Pete Burnap (Cardiff), Rachel Gibson (Manchester), Luke Sloan (Cardiff), Rosalynd Southern (Manchester) and Matthew Williams (Cardiff)

Citizen Forecasting in the 2015 British General Election,  Andreas Murr (Oxford)

1100    Tea and coffee

1130    Vote Function and Popularity Function Models for Forecasting the 2015 General Election, Harold Clarke (U Texas at Dallas), Marianne Stewart (U Texas at Dallas) and Paul Whitely (Essex)

Using a Synthetic Model for Forecasting the Next British General Election, Michael S. Lewis-Beck (Iowa), Richard Nadeau (Montreal) and Éric Bélanger (McGill)

Forecasting the 2015 Vote in England, Scotland and Wales, Mary Stegmaier and Laron Williams (Missouri)

1250    Lunch

1350    Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates, Christopher Prosser (Oxford)

Local votes within the parliamentary constituency context: Forecasting the 2015 general election, Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher and Galina Borisyuk (Plymouth)

Victory without power; the Tories in the 2015 election, Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth (Stony Brook)

1510    Tea and coffee

1540    Forecasting from the geography of individual-level survey data, Stephen Fisher (Oxford)

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2015 British general election, Robert Ford (Manchester), Will Jennings (Southampton), Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser) and Christopher Wlezien (U Texas at Austin) Combining National, Local and Historical Information to Forecast the 2015 General Election’, Chris Hanretty (UEA), Benjamin Lauderdale (LSE) & Nick Vivyan (Durham)

1700    Summary of the all the forecasts for the day and general discussion, John Curtice (Strathclyde)

1800    End