2008

ARTICLES AND CHAPTERS:

▪ P. Bellucci, “Why Berlusconi’s landslide return?”, on “Politische Vierteljahresschrift” n. 49, pages 605-617. (Read abstract)

At the Italian parliamentary election of April 2008 the centre-right coalition, led by media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, prevailed with 3.3 million votes over the centre-left coalition, led by Walter Veltroni, former mayor of Rome. This commentary analyzes the electoral results by looking at three factors which affected the vote: the institutional context, the electoral campaigns of both coalitions, and the voters’ behaviour. The article claims that the electoral outcome originated from an asymmetrical abstention of centre-left voters who did not turn out, and from a high-level of swing-voting which favoured the centre-right. It is argued that this election hardly signals a political realignment. Rather than value changes, valence politics and government performance are at the basis of the centre-right victory.

▪ P. Bellucci, “The parliamentary elections in Italy, April 2006”, on “Electoral Studies” n. 27, pages 185-190.

▪ P. Catellani, A. I. Alberici, P. Milesi “Se non ci fosse stato l’euro… Controfattuali tra economia e politica”, in ”Mente ed economia. Come psicologia e neuroscienze spiegano il comportamento economico” edited by A. Antonietti, D. Balconi, Bologna, Il Mulino, pages 209-224.

▪ N. Cavazza, P. G. Corbetta “From the parish to the polling booth. Evolution and interpretation of the political gender gap in Italy: 1968-2006”, published on “Electoral Studies” n. 27, pages 272-284.

▪ P. G. Corbetta, N. Cavazza, “Quando la difesa del territorio diventa voto”, on “Il Mulino”n. 3, pages 441-448. (Read abstract)

On the basis of the 2006 Itanes survey, this article analyses the vote of the Lega Nord as an expression of identity with the territory, in a general situation of insecurity produced by the weakening of all the other identification sources.

▪ L. De Sio, “Are Less-Involved Voters the Key to Win Elections?”,on ”Comparative Political Studies” n. 41, pages 57-70. (Read abstract)

The literature highlights how different individual levels of political interest and knowledge matter for political attitudes and behavior. A logical-quantitative voting model is thus proposed for a two-party system, based on voters’ left—right ideological positions and their degree of political involvement. The model hypothesizes that although more involved voters generally behave in accordance with their ideological orientation, those who are less involved do not. Moreover, the latter tend to be more undecided and therefore likely to be more strongly influenced by campaign activities. This model is then applied to survey data regarding the 2001 Italian general elections. Results confirm the hypotheses and show that the most competitive area is ideologically a narrow centrist area for very involved citizens, becoming wider as the level of involvement decreases. Separate analyses are carried out for different geopolitical areas of the country, with results fitting the political history of these areas.

▪ P. Segatti, C. Vezzoni, “Religion and politics in Italy, who comes first in the new century?”, published on ”Polena” n. 2.

▪ P. Segatti, C. Vezzoni “Cattolici e voto”, published in ”Senza più Sinistra” edited by R. Manheimer, P. Natale, Milano, Il Sole 24 Ore.

BOOKS:

▪ L. De Sio, “Elettori in movimento. Nuove tecniche di inferenza ecologica per lo studio dei flussi elettorali”, Firenze, Polistampa.

▪ ITANES, “Il ritorno di Berlusconi. Vincitori e sconfitti nelle elezioni del 2008”, Bologna, Il Mulino.

> Pages 7-14: “L’alternanza attesa” by P. Bellucci, P. Segatti
> Pages 15-28: “Il verdetto elettorale” by R. D’alimonte
> Pages 29-44: “Una breve campagna elettorale” by G. Legnante, G. Sani
> Pages 45-56: “Il primo motore del cambiamento: l’astensionismo” by D. Tuorto
> Pages 57-70: “Il secondo motore del cambiamento: i flussi di voto” by L. De Sio
> Pages 71-82: “L’appello al voto utile: chi ha premiato?” by H. M. Schadee, P. Segatti
> Pages 83-96: “Chi ha votato chi?” by M. Maraffi
> Pages 97-108: “Territorio e tradizioni politiche” by C. Vezzoni
> Pages 109-122: “La strategia dei principali partiti e la risposta degli elettori” by R. Biorcio
> Pages 123-135: “La fine della questione cattolica?” by L. Ceccarini
> Pages 137-148: “L’offerta personalizzata degli sfidanti” by M. Barisione, P. Catellani
> Pages 149-160: “La distanza degli italiani dalla politica” by G. Gasperoni
> Pages 161-178: “Il colore politico dell’insicurezza” by M. Roccato, N. Cavazza, P. G. Corbetta
> Pages 179-192: “Declino del mercato e tradizionalismo etico” by C. Petrarca
> Pages 193-208: “2008: solo un referendum sul governo Prodi?” by P. Bellucci

▪ P. Segatti, “Lingua e identità in una regione plurale : il punto di vista di friulani, giuliani e sloveni”, Gorizia, Regione Friuli Venezia Giulia-LEG, Dec 15.